Image: Carrier
Carrier’s Q3 2025 report showed a tale of two markets: residential HVAC in the Americas fell ~30% year over year, but commercial HVAC (especially data centers, applied systems, aftermarket, and controls) rose sharply and helped stabilize results. That mix shift has real implications for contractors, techs, and vendors across the trades.
What happened
Carrier reported Q3 2025 net sales of $5.58B, down 7% (organic –4%), with adjusted EPS of $0.67 (–13% YoY). Management trimmed full-year 2025 guidance to ~$22B in sales and ~$2.65 adjusted EPS, and announced a new $5B share repurchase authorization.
Commercial HVAC (Americas): +30%
Residential HVAC (Americas): –30%
Light Commercial (Americas): –4%
Data center HVAC: business up ~250% YoY and expected to double to $1B by year-end, per CEO David Gitlin.
Carrier also highlighted “aggressive cost actions,” including eliminating ~3,000 indirect roles, as it leans into structural cost takeout and digitization.
Why residential is soft (and how long it might last)
Residential demand is being hit by depressed new home construction and low existing-home turnover—two conditions that typically trigger equipment replacements 20–25% of the time, according to Carrier. Distributor destockingin the Americas added pressure in the quarter. Until mortgage rates fall more meaningfully and housing activity rebounds, management expects residential to stay challenged.
What’s powering commercial strength
Data centers & AI: Hyperscaler and colo wins, larger order sizes, and faster cycles are turbocharging chilled-water plants, precision cooling, and controls. Carrier’s data center revenue is up ~250% YoY.
Applied systems & large projects: The applied business in the Americas grew ~60% YoY, supported by expanded chiller capacity and new products. Healthcare and “mega-projects” were called out as growth verticals.
Aftermarket & controls: Double-digit aftermarket growth continues, which smooths cycles and supports margins (service contracts, parts, retrofits, controls upgrades).
Tariff pass-through: Pricing actions (~$200M this year) are expected to keep tariffs net neutral next year, protecting gross margin math on commercial bids.
How to plan ahead?
If you’re an employer (HVAC contractors & service firms)
Follow the money to commercial/data centers. Prioritize teams for chiller plants, hydronics, controls integration (BAS), and mission-critical cooling. Demand looks durable into 2026 given AI/data-center capex pipelines.
Build your aftermarket engine. Planned maintenance, parts, and upgrades are growing faster than install. Spin up or scale service agreements, remote monitoring, and controls retrofits.
Bid healthcare and mega-projects. Carrier called these out as bright spots—position your estimating and PM teams accordingly.
Protect margins with pricing & procurement. With tariffs likely net-neutral due to earlier pricing actions, ensure your quotes reflect updated input costs and lead times.
If you’re a job seeker (techs, installers, estimators, PMs, controls)
Hot roles: Chiller techs, commissioning agents, BAS/controls techs, data-center HVAC specialists, commercial estimators/PMs, and aftermarket/service roles.
Skills to emphasize: Hydronics, large-tonnage chillers, VFDs, redundancy/N+1 design, CRAC/CRAH, PLC/BAS (Niagara, Tridium, Johnson, Honeywell), and UPS/generator coordination.
Career strategy: Even if you’re residential-heavy, consider upskilling into light commercial → applied systems → mission-critical, where demand and pay premiums are stronger right now. (Carrier’s mix shift is your signal.)
Powering America’s Skilled Workforce
At TradesmenUp, we are bridging the gap between employers and tradesmen who keep America running.
👉 If you’re hiring: post your open roles or explore TradesmenUp’s job board to connect with qualified skilled tradesmen in HVAC, electrical, plumbing, welding, and more.
👉 If you’re looking for work: create a profile and discover skilled trades jobs across the country.
